According to @StockMKTNewz, JPMorgan now expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 bps in December, as reported by Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg via @StockMKTNewz on Nov 26, 2025. Kalshi shows an 84% probability of a December rate cut, indicating strong market pricing ahead of the FOMC decision. Source: Kalshi odds quoted by @StockMKTNewz. Crypto traders are watching rate cut odds because shifts in US policy expectations often drive risk sentiment; monitoring Kalshi probabilities and front end Treasury yields can help gauge positioning into the meeting. Source: Kalshi market odds via @StockMKTNewz and Bloomberg rates coverage cited in the same post.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the U.S. recorded a $284.4 billion budget deficit in October 2025, the first month of fiscal 2026, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus of $230 billion by $54.4 billion, or about 23.7 percent. Source: @StockMKTNewz citing Seeking Alpha; Bloomberg. This larger-than-expected shortfall at the start of FY2026 puts focus on Treasury financing needs and rate expectations that traders monitor for impacts on bond yields, the U.S. dollar, and risk sentiment in BTC and ETH. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury financing and issuance practices; @StockMKTNewz.

According to @KobeissiLetter, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said there is a very good chance President Trump announces the next Federal Reserve Chair before Christmas, flagging an accelerated timeline for Fed leadership clarity (source: @KobeissiLetter). Event risk around a Fed Chair announcement typically shifts rate path probabilities in Fed funds futures and front-end U.S. Treasury yields, with spillovers to the U.S. Dollar Index and crypto beta such as BTC and ETH (source: CME FedWatch Tool; U.S. Department of the Treasury data). Traders can monitor Fed funds futures (ZQ), 2Y/10Y Treasury yields, DXY, and BTC/ETH price and options implied volatility into the indicated window to manage exposure (source: CME; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE U.S. Dollar Index; Deribit). Potential setups include short-duration rate volatility hedges and crypto options straddles to capture announcement-driven volatility, with disciplined sizing and risk controls (source: CME; Deribit).

According to @StockMKTNewz, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC there is a very good chance President Trump will announce the next Federal Reserve Chair before Christmas to take over after Jerome Powell’s term ends (source: @StockMKTNewz citing CNBC). Powell’s current term as Fed Chair runs through May 2026, defining the handover window for any successor (source: Federal Reserve Board, Board Members: Jerome H. Powell). For trading, earlier clarity on the Chair nomination can recalibrate interest-rate expectations, USD and Treasury yields via the monetary policy transmission channel, with crypto majors like BTC and ETH sensitive given their increased correlation with equities and macro conditions in recent years (sources: Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy and the Economy; International Monetary Fund analysis on rising crypto–equity correlations).

According to @CNBC, U.S. Treasury yields held steady as traders focused on prospects for a Federal Reserve rate cut, keeping attention on interest-rate expectations as the next market catalyst for risk assets, including crypto (source: @CNBC).

According to @StockMKTNewz, Kalshi’s prediction market is pricing roughly a 75% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points next month, with the December FOMC statement scheduled for Wednesday, December 10 at 2 PM ET; Source: @StockMKTNewz citing Kalshi. A 25 bp cut would lower the target range by 0.25 percentage points, which historically aligns with easier financial conditions through lower front-end yields; Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System policy implementation framework. For trading, watch DXY, 2-year Treasury yields, and BTC and ETH volatility around the 2 PM ET release as deviations from market-implied odds can trigger sharp moves in risk assets; Source: Federal Reserve release timing and Kalshi-implied probabilities reported by @StockMKTNewz.

According to @CNBC, U.S. Treasury yields edged lower as investors awaited delayed economic data, signaling a cautious risk tone in rates markets (source: CNBC tweet, Nov 24, 2025). Lower long-term yields are associated with looser financial conditions by reducing discount rates and borrowing costs, a dynamic that can support risk assets’ valuations (source: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Report; BIS Quarterly Review). For crypto traders, moves in yields and the U.S. dollar often align with shifts in liquidity and risk appetite that can influence BTC and ETH price momentum and volatility (source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report; Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index). Near term, traders are watching the 10-year yield, DXY, and Fed funds futures-implied path to gauge crypto beta and basis moves in BTC and ETH (source: CME FedWatch Tool; CME Group futures market data).

According to CNBC, a turnaround in sentiment for U.S. markets may be in the cards, as highlighted in its Daily Open on Nov 24, 2025. Source: CNBC. For trading, a shift toward risk-on equities is a key macro cue that crypto desks track when calibrating BTC and ETH beta exposure and correlation to stocks. Source: CNBC. Crypto traders can align short-term positioning with confirmation from broader equity performance and volatility measures before increasing risk exposure. Source: CNBC.

According to @WhiteHouse, the Administration highlighted a powerhouse week including a FIFA task force, a jobs report said to have doubled expectations, a McDonald’s summit, mention of Cristiano Ronaldo, a $1 trillion Saudi investment, freed hostages in Israel, a Department of Education closing, and six months of zero illegal crossings, offering headline signals but no figures or documents in the post for validation, which frames this as event-risk rather than tradeable data until confirmed (source: @WhiteHouse). For positioning, traders should validate each item with primary issuers before making moves: nonfarm payrolls and unemployment from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, any Saudi capital program details from the Saudi Ministry of Investment, border statistics from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, and agency status updates from the U.S. Department of Education (sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Saudi Ministry of Investment; U.S. Customs and Border Protection; U.S. Department of Education). To map potential market impact, monitor rate-cut probabilities via CME FedWatch and USD momentum via the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, while tracking crypto risk via BTC options implied volatility on Deribit and spot liquidity on major exchanges to gauge risk-on/off spillovers around any confirmed releases (sources: CME FedWatch; ICE U.S. Dollar Index; Deribit; major exchange order books). Historical patterns show upside payroll surprises coincide with higher short-end Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, conditions that have pressured high-beta assets including crypto during tightening phases; watch UST 2Y yield reaction and BTC performance around jobs releases to manage delta and optionality (sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve H.15; Macrohistory Database). If details of the cited $1 trillion Saudi investment are confirmed, track sovereign flow channels via the Public Investment Fund disclosures and Saudi Ministry of Investment reports, alongside oil-linked FX and global liquidity gauges that can influence cross-asset beta correlations relevant to crypto (sources: Public Investment Fund; Saudi Ministry of Investment; Bank for International Settlements).

According to @WhiteHouse, an official X post on Nov 21, 2025 labeled Democrats’ coordinated video to the national security apparatus as “seditious and dangerous,” quoting the Press Secretary that breaking the chain of command can lead to chaos and deaths (source: @WhiteHouse on X, Nov 21, 2025). The post provides no policy directives, personnel changes, or legislative actions, so no immediate change to defense posture or economic policy can be confirmed from this message alone (source: @WhiteHouse on X, Nov 21, 2025). For traders, the headline centers on national security and chain-of-command risk, making defense contractors, cybersecurity names, USD and Treasury yields, volatility indices, and crypto macro proxies like BTC and ETH thematically relevant to monitor; however, this post by itself does not supply tradable policy detail (source: @WhiteHouse on X, Nov 21, 2025).

According to @StockMKTNewz, New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed can still cut rates in the near term because current policy is modestly restrictive. Source: @StockMKTNewz. A dovish pivot that lowers policy rates typically eases financial conditions, supporting risk assets like equities and crypto by reducing discount rates. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Monetary Policy Report (June 2023). For trading, watch a decline in the US 2-year Treasury yield and a softer DXY as confirmation signals that often coincide with strength in BTC and ETH. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Monetary Policy Report (June 2023).

According to @godbole17, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is up about 25 bps since the Federal Reserve began cutting rates in September last year, remaining firm despite market hopes for deeper easing. Source: https://twitter.com/godbole17/status/1991788508193939827 Elevated long-end yields tighten financial conditions by raising borrowing costs, a setup that typically pressures risk assets, including crypto. Source: https://www.chicagofed.org/research/financial-conditions-index Crypto assets have shown stronger comovement with equities and global financial conditions since 2020, increasing sensitivity to rate and liquidity dynamics that stem from higher Treasury yields. Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2022/10/11/global-financial-stability-report-october-2022 Traders should monitor the 10-year yield trend as a key macro driver for BTC and ETH performance during periods of sticky rates and constrained liquidity. Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2022/10/11/global-financial-stability-report-october-2022

According to @CNBC, the network has published a preview of Friday’s big stock stories and the likely market movers for the next trading session to guide positioning before the bell; source: CNBC tweet dated Nov 21, 2025. Traders should consult the preview to identify specific company headlines, economic releases, and sector themes expected to drive index futures and early cash-market flows; source: CNBC tweet dated Nov 21, 2025. Equity risk sentiment can transmit to crypto, so shifts flagged in the preview may influence BTC and ETH performance as crypto and stocks have shown higher post-2020 correlation; source: IMF blog post Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Posing New Risks to Financial Stability by Tobias Adrian, Tara Iyer, and Mahvash S. Qureshi, Jan 2022.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, the highest in four years, and US stock index futures are surging as markets price in imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts (source: The Kobeissi Letter). According to The Kobeissi Letter, this bad-news-is-good-news setup reflects expectations that the Fed is being forced to cut policy rates despite a strong equity backdrop (source: The Kobeissi Letter). According to The Kobeissi Letter, such a shift in rate expectations tends to support risk appetite, which crypto traders may interpret as potential tailwinds for BTC and ETH if yields and the US dollar ease (source: The Kobeissi Letter). According to The Kobeissi Letter, traders should monitor rate-cut odds, Treasury yields, the US dollar, and cross-asset liquidity to gauge follow-through across equities and digital assets (source: The Kobeissi Letter).

According to @lisaabramowicz1, U.S. continuing jobless claims have risen to the highest level since 2021 in the latest weekly claims report, signaling that unemployed workers are taking longer to find new jobs; source: @lisaabramowicz1 citing the U.S. Department of Labor. For trading, market participants closely watch how DXY, Treasury yields, and crypto majors such as BTC and ETH react around weekly labor data releases to gauge macro-liquidity sentiment; source: @lisaabramowicz1 referencing the U.S. Department of Labor claims report. Traders should monitor whether upcoming Department of Labor releases confirm a sustained uptrend in continuing claims to assess labor-market softening risks; source: U.S. Department of Labor via @lisaabramowicz1.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Fed’s Waller said a December rate cut would provide extra labor-market insurance. According to the Federal Reserve, lowering the policy rate is used to support maximum employment by easing financial conditions, which can influence Treasury yields, the US dollar, and risk asset pricing including crypto.

According to @StockMKTNewz, CNBC reported that an ethics report found former U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Kugler violated central bank trading rules while in office (source: CNBC via @StockMKTNewz tweet, Nov 15, 2025). The post shares no specifics on the transactions, timing, or penalties, limiting immediate assessment of market impact (source: @StockMKTNewz tweet referencing CNBC). Traders should monitor the full CNBC article and the underlying ethics document for details to gauge potential policy-credibility effects that can influence rates, USD, and broader risk sentiment including crypto (source: CNBC via @StockMKTNewz tweet).

According to the source, BTC dropped below $100,000 during the latest session as spot prices weakened across risk assets (source: Coinbase BTC-USD price feed). The move is attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar as the ICE U.S. Dollar Index advanced, tightening financial conditions from higher U.S. Treasury yields, net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and elevated long-side liquidations alongside funding turning negative and futures basis compression (sources: ICE Data Indices for DXY; U.S. Department of the Treasury daily yield curve; Farside Investors ETF flow tracker; Coinglass liquidations dashboard; CME Group futures data). For trading, participants are focusing on daily ETF flow direction, USD strength versus risk sentiment, and derivatives positioning to gauge continuation or mean-reversion risk (sources: Farside Investors; ICE Data Indices; Coinglass; CME Group).

According to @KobeissiLetter, U.S. national apartment rents fell 0.31% month over month in October, the steepest October decline in over 15 years. Source: @KobeissiLetter. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline as elevated supply weighed on prices, with three of the five largest monthly rent drops in the past 15 years occurring in August, September, and October 2025. Source: @KobeissiLetter. Annual rent growth slowed to 0.8%, down from 1.5% at the start of 2025. Source: @KobeissiLetter. All regions declined in October, led by the West at -0.53% MoM, followed by the South at -0.28%, the Northeast at -0.24%, and the Midwest at -0.18%. Source: @KobeissiLetter. Shelter is the largest component of the U.S. Consumer Price Index and includes rent of primary residence and owners' equivalent rent, so rent trends are closely watched for inflation assessment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Because the Federal Reserve bases policy decisions on inflation data, rent disinflation is a key input for rate expectations and broader financial conditions tracked by traders. Source: Federal Reserve. These macro conditions form the backdrop for risk assets, making the rent downtrend relevant for liquidity-sensitive markets, including cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH. Source: Federal Reserve.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the shutdown’s final tally includes 5 million airline passengers delayed or canceled, 619 billion dollars in new federal debt, a federal statistical system described as permanently damaged, 43 days of delayed economic data, potential non-release of October jobs and inflation reports, and 750,000 federal workers furloughed, with funding only extended through January 30. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Nov 13, 2025. According to @KobeissiLetter, the potential absence of October CPI and jobs reports removes key inputs that markets use to price interest rate expectations. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Nov 13, 2025; CME Group FedWatch Tool. Crypto markets have shown sensitivity to US macro data surprises and cross-asset risk sentiment, making a prolonged data blackout a relevant factor for BTC and ETH traders to monitor. Source: Coin Metrics research 2023–2024.